Morning Quick Notes

Overnight
Grains are seeing some strength overnight with corn up 2 cents, beans up 3 cents and wheat up 2 cents.

Morning Headlines
U.S./China trade talks continue this morning, with both sides touting them as a success.

The USDA is extending the deadline to apply for farm aid payments. The original January 15 deadline will be extended by the number of business days that USDA offices are closed due to the government shutdown.

EIA weekly ethanol production will be released this morning, and is expected to be slightly lower than last week’s 1.011 million barrels/day, as margins are still weak.

Egypt’s GASC has two wheat tenders today, one for Feb 20-28 shipment, and one for March 1-10 shipment. They received 9 offers, with Russian believed to be the lowest at around $235/MT. GASC last tendered on December 20, and has bought just 300,000 MT of wheat in the past month.

Chart of the Day
Today’s charts are a reminder on USDA corn and soybean yield changes, from the Oct to Nov reports and subsequently from Nov to “Final”, or January, since 1993; the average trade estimates for this year’s Jan report are added in, and the trade will have to take these as official until the government shutdown ends and the annual January Crop Production Report is published. Of the last seven years with Nov corn yield declines, Jan has fallen further five times, averaging a –1.8 bpa (twice the trade guess) in those seasons.