Morning Quick Notes

Overnight
Grains seeing some strength this morning with beans up 6 ½ cents, corn up 1 ½ cents, and wheat up 5 ½ cents.

Morning Headlines
Wire story reports soy market remains patient on U.S.-China trade, but clock is ticking; should nothing happen by the New Year, enthusiasm may be all but dashed. Trump keeps tweeting China is buying beans but, trade awaits confirmation.

The White House is delaying a second round of payments from a $12 billion aid package for farmers amid optimism China will soon resume buying U.S. soybeans.

U.S. lawmakers have reached an agreement on a farm bill that leaves out a proposal to tighten food stamps criteria backed by President Donald Trump, and offers some financial certainty to farmers suffering from the U.S. trade war with China.

Chart of the Day
The USDA got a little more aggressive on their 2018/19 Brazilian soybean production estimate this month, raising it by 1.5 million tonnes from last month (and from the general area where current projections from Conab and INTL FCStone Brazil reside) to 122.0 MMT; that still remains below more optimistic private ideas that the crop could eventually reach the 130 MMT mark given continued strong weather. If that number were realized, it would be essentially doubling soy production in just seven seasons.