Morning Quick Notes

Overnight
Grains mixed in the overnight. Beans up 3 cents, corn down a penny, and wheat down 5 cents.

Morning Headlines
After four days of silence China has stated what they agreed to at the G20 summit. They said they will “expand imports according to the needs of its domestic market and people.”

Brazil’s soybean exports to China in November were up 167%.

Average trade est for US 2018/19 corn carryout is near 1,738 mil bu vs USDA Nov best of 1,736, Range is 1,700-1,790. Average trade est for US 2018/19 soybean carryout is near 945 mil bu vs USDA Nov best of 955, Range is 875-975. Average trade est for US 2018/19 wheat carryout is near 956 mil bu vs USDA Nov best of 949, Range is 924-984.

Chart of the Day
Today’s chart shows the new-crop CBOT soybean/corn ratio, from the start of the prior calendar year, back through the 2011 ratio and including SX9/CZ9 so far since January. That ratio sits right in the middle of the last ten years’ general area, at 2.37-to-1; only once has that number been under 2-to-1 (SX2/CZ2 at this point in 2011), and only once as high as 2.7-to-1 (SX7/CZ7 in late 2016). Most expect the current ratio to work lower through the winter to discourage 2019 plantings, though that would be an abnormal move.