Morning Quick Notes

Overnight
In the overnight grains are seeing some weakness. Wheat is down 3 cents, corn is down a penny and beans are up 2 cents.

U.S. Dollar Index up 350 points.

Morning Headlines
Upside in prices could be limited in front of this week’s USDA Supply and Demand report. Most look for USDA to raise US and World soybean supply and could increase US corn and wheat carryout due to lower demand.

Average trade guess for US 2018 corn crop is 14,872 mil bu vs USDA 14,827. Soybean crop is estimated near 4,733 vs USDA 4,693. US Average trade guess for US 2018/19 corn carryout is 1,919 mil bu vs USDA 1,774. Soybeans are est near 898 vs 845. Wheat is estimated near 950 vs 935.

AgRural estimated Brazil’s soy planting campaign at 10%, double both last year’s pace and the five-year average.

Chart of the Day
China continues to hold out of the U.S. soybean export market over the first month of the 2018/19 marketing year, cancelling another net 124k tonnes of bean sales last week and seeing a zero in U.S. shipments for the third straight week as well. Cumulative outstanding commitments are now down to 1.266 million tonnes, compared to a whopping 10.66 MMT on this comparable date last year. Shipments to China ran in the 550-750k-tonne range in Sept last year, peaking at 2.1 MMT on the week ending October 26.