Morning Quick Notes

Overnight
Grains mixed near the break with corn up 2 ½ cents, wheat down a penny, and beans unchanged.

U.S. stocks sharply higher on new trilateral trade agreement between the U.S., Mexico and Canada.

Morning Headlines
Friday’s bearish USDA report has grain futures uncertain this morning. Numbers suggested bigger bean and corn crops.

Corn and wheat bulls hope that declining world wheat supply and record demand for U.S. corn will help prices near season lows.

On Sunday Canada announced the decision to enter into a reworked NAFTA agreement after the U.S. and Mexico made a last-minute agreement to salvage trilateral trade. The new United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) will help bring jobs into the United States.

Chart of the Day
Somewhat lost in the shuffle of bearish USDA September 1 stocks numbers was an unexpected higher revision in 2018 all-wheat production, with durum and spring wheat output increases more than making up for a winter wheat production decline compared to August. The winter wheat crop— now at 1184 million bushels—stands as the smallest harvest since 2002, down almost 500 mbu in the last two years alone thanks to a four-million-acre decline in harvested area since 2016 and a 5+ bushel per acre loss in U.S. yields.