Morning Quick Notes

Overnight
Grains mixed overnight. Beans up 2 cents, corn down 1 ¼, and wheat down 2 ½.

Morning Headlines
The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange yesterday estimated the 2018/19 Argentine soybean crop at 53 MMT, up from 35.1 MMT last season, with corn at a record 43 MMT, up from 31.7 MMT last year, and wheat at a record 19.7 MMT, up from 17.8 MMT in 2017/18.

Chinese importers have this year booked a record 12 to 14 million tonnes of Brazilian beans for October-November arrival, according to the trader and an analyst in China. Brazil and Argentina are expected to import more U.S. soybeans as a result, analysts said.

China will further expand soybean production and reduce corn acreage in some areas in the next five years, according to an official document published by state-owned Xinhua news agency.

Look for ethanol production to slow ahead on seasonal maintenance and slower run-rates due to poor margins.

U.S. Looks to be moving ahead with a trade agreement with Mexico, Canada still unsure. 

USDA Quarterly Stocks Report out tomorrow at 11 a.m.

Chart of the Day
Brazilian soybean planting is getting off to a strong start, and that crop goes into the 2018/19 marketing year, along with a (assumed) rebounding Argentine harvest, and the current season’s ever-increasing U.S. crop. The USDA is expected to increase yields for the ‘18 domestic crop, and they’re aggressive on new S.A. estimates but not overly so; combined western hemisphere output in ‘18/19 (along with a near-record crop in Paraguay/Uruguay/Bolivia) is seen at a record high by over 7 MMT, up over 20 MMT vs LY.