Morning Quick Notes

Overnight
Seeing a little weakness in the overnight session with wheat and corn down ½ cent and beans down 1 ½ cents.

Morning Headlines

  • U.S. inflation data for July will be released at 7:30am CT, and is expected to hold at 2.9% with core CPI at 2.3%. Traders will be looking for any affects from tariffs.
  • The USDA will release the August WASDE report this morning at 11:00am CT. This will be the first report since USDA eliminated the lockup briefing.
  • Trade guesses for winter wheat are unchanged, while the average spring wheat estimate is down 13 million from July at 601 million bushels (570-633). Carryout is expected to drop 24 million to 961 million bushels. World wheat ending stocks are estimated at 256.42 MMT vs 260.88 MMT in July.
  • Bean ending stocks trade guess is 638 million bushels, up 58 million from July. World soybean ending stocks are estimated at 99.33 MMT vs 98.27 MMT in July.
  • Corn ending stocks are expected to rise from 1.552 billion to 1.636 billion bushels. World corn ending stocks are estimated at 152.59 MMT vs 151.96 in July.

Chart of the Day
Average trade guess for corn yield on today’s WASDE report is 176 bpa (171-180). World corn ending stocks are estimated at 152.59 MMT vs 151.96 in July. Average trade guess for WASDE soybean yield is 49.6 bpa (48-51.5) vs 49.4 bpa last Aug.