Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures posted 5 to 6 1/4 cent losses in most contracts on Tuesday. December posted a new contract low at $3.57. The USDA reported a private export sale of 113,000 MT of corn to Egypt for 17/18 (60,000 MT) and 18/19 (53,000 MT). They also reported a cancellation of 152,000 MT of 17/18 sorghum to Mexico. The average trade guess for old crop US corn stocks in Thursday’s USDA S&D report is for a 13 mbu jump to 2.115 bbu. New crop US stocks are also seen higher, mainly from the increase to acreage in June 29’s Acreage report. CONAB updated their 17/18 Brazil corn production numbers this morning showing a 2.21 MMT reduction to the second crop to 56.01 MMT, with the total crop down 2.08 MMT to 82.92 MMT. Analysts are expecting Thursday’s USDA report to show 83.2 MMT for Brazil, with Argentina at 32.7 MMT.

Jul 18 Corn closed at $3.39 3/4, down 6 cents,

Sep 18 Corn closed at $3.47 3/4, down 6 1/4 cents,

Dec 18 Corn closed at $3.60 3/4, down 6 1/4 cents

Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.72 1/4, down 5 3/4 cents

Soybean futures closed the Tuesday session with most nearby contracts steady to fractionally mixed, held up by meal. Nearby soy meal was $2.60/ton higher, with soy oil 14 points in the green. The 7-day QPF shows forecasts for rain concentrated throughout most of NE, IA, and MN into the beginning of next week, with some of the ECB catching some moisture as well. Old crop US soybean stocks are expected to see little change in Thursday’s USDA report to 507 mbu. New crop is seen at 471 mbu, nearly 86 mbu above June on more acreage. The USDA is expected to factor in adjustments from the US-China trade dispute in that report. That is assuming there are any. Tuesday morning’s CONAB report showed projected soybean production at 118.88 MMT, up 830,000 MT from the previous estimate. That is on par with most estimates of 118.9 MMT ahead of Thursday’s WASDE, as Argentina is seen at 36.7 MMT.

Jul 18 Soybeans closed at $8.52 1/4, up 1/2 cent,

Aug 18 Soybeans closed at $8.55 3/4, unch,

Sep 18 Soybeans closed at $8.61, unch,

Jan 19 Soybeans closed at $8.81 1/4, down 1/2 cent,

Jul 18 Soybean Meal closed at $334.40, up $2.60,

Jul 18 Soybean Oil closed at $28.88, up $0.14

Wheat futures ended the Tuesday session with most KC and MPLS contracts 8 to 11 1/4 cents lower, as CBT was down 15 to 16 cents. The average trade estimate for the July Crop Production report is for all wheat production at 1.86 bbu, 33 mbu larger than June’s projection. Most of that increase is expected from Spring wheat production on the larger acreage number, as all winter is seen as steady. Old crop ending stocks should be equal June 1 stocks of 1.1 billion bushels, with analysts expecting 18/19 US stocks at 985 mbu, up 39 mbu. Japan is seeking 62,865 MT of US and Australian wheat in their weekly MOA tender, with 28,530 MT US specific. Egypt’s GASC purchased 175,000 MT of Russian when in their most recent tender on Tuesday. Russia’s SovEcon updated the country’s wheat production estimate down 2.9 to 69.6 MMT.

Sep 18 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.92, down 16 cents,

Sep 18 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.94 3/4, down 11 1/4 cents,

Sep 18 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.37 1/2, down 10 1/2 cents

Live cattle futures saw most contracts 67.5 to 80 cents lower on Tuesday. Feeder cattle futures were up 27.5 to 42.5 cents the front months helped by losses in corn. The CME feeder cattle index was up 27 cents from the previous day at $146.75 on 7/9. Wholesale boxed beef values were mixed on Tuesday afternoon. Choice boxes were up 40 cents to $207.32, while Select boxes were 23 cents lower at $198.39. USDA estimated FI cattle slaughter through Tuesday at 239,000 head, 3,000 head more than last week and up 2,000 the same week last year. Wednesday’s FCE online auction has a total of 250 head to be offered.

Aug 18 Cattle closed at $105.450, down $0.675,

Oct 18 Cattle closed at $107.825, down $0.800,

Dec 18 Cattle closed at $112.275, down $0.675,

Aug 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $151.850, up $0.400

Sep 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $152.050, up $0.275

Oct 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $152.150, up $0.425

Lean hog futures posted sharp losses in most contracts on Tuesday, with August down the limit. July was down just 72.5 cents as it tries to stay close to cash ahead of next Monday’s expiration. The CME Lean Hog Index was down 19 cents on July 6, to $81.91. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was down $1.29 on Tuesday afternoon at $84.10. The butt was the only primal cut reported higher, up just 4 cents. The national base carcass price was down 8 cents from the previous day, reported at $76.36. USDA estimated FI hog slaughter at 901,000 head through Tuesday, down 25,000 head from last week but 24,000 head above last year.

Jul 18 Hogs closed at $79.500, down $0.725,

Aug 18 Hogs closed at $69.775, down $3.000

Oct 18 Hogs closed at $53.775, down $2.350

Cotton futures ended the day with most contracts 66 to 92 points higher, with the help of deteriorating crop conditions as reported on Monday. Late Tuesday afternoon a Bloomberg report stated that President Trump was preparing to release list for tariffs on additional $200 billion in Chinese goods. Monday’s Crop Progress report showed that 51% of the Texas crop was squared as of Sunday, with 18 setting bolls, both ahead of normal. Condition ratings in TX were down 14 points to 268, with the overall ratings at 313. The Cotlook A index was up 250 points from the previous day on July 9 to 94.60 cents/lb. The weekly USDA AWP is 74.59 cents/lb through Thursday.

Oct 18 Cotton closed at 87.500, up 92 points,

Dec 18 Cotton closed at 86.380, up 91 points

Mar 19 Cotton closed at 86.020, up 66 points

Market Commentary provided by:

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