Morning Commentary 6-13-18

Day 2 of Kansas Harvest Complete

Overnight
Market seeing some pressure in the overnight session. Corn is down a penny, wheat is down 5 cents, and beans are down 9 cents.

Morning Headlines
Day 2 of Kansas wheat harvest is complete. Monday’s report estimated a rough 2% of harvest complete. With dry and warm conditions, combines will stay in the field pretty continuous.

Southwest Kansas has seen a range of wheat factors with test weights ranging from the low 50’s to 60’s. protein anywhere from 9-14, and dryland bpa hitting around 20 early on.

The USDA June supply and demand report: unchanged corn yield @ 174 bpa, beans @ 48.5 bpa

Traders still questioning whether the US bean export number at 2.065 bil bushels is obtainable given current export loading pace and China uncertainty.

Fed is expected to raise interest rates Wednesday.

The Senate Ag Committee will vote today on Farm Bill considerations, trying to move it out for a full vote. The House will likely vote again late week on an amended version of their Bill.

Chart of the Day
The USDA again this month came through with lower old and new-crop soybean carryout numbers than the trade was expecting, cutting ‘17/18 ending stocks by 25 mbu to 505 mbu, and ‘18/19 inventories by 30 mbu to 385 mbu. That’s due to the government getting (justifiably) aggressive on crush expectations but punting again on export declines, and with a decent likelihood of increased 2018 production numbers if the current beneficial weather pattern continues, and if/when more bean acres are discovered on June 29th.