Morning Commentary 6-11-18

Mixed Trade to Start the Week

Overnight

Grains are mixed in the overnight session. Currently beans are down 1 ¾ cents, corn is down 1 ¼ cents, and wheat is up 2 ½ cents.

U.S. Dollar Index up only slightly.

Morning Headlines

President Trump will meet with North Korea in Singapore on Tuesday.

USDA Monthly S & D Report out Tuesday, June 12 at 11 a.m.

Most could see USDA reduce slightly U.S. and World corn and soybean carryout and leave wheat unchanged. U.S. summer weather will be key to prices.

Chinese trade data show May bean imports totaled 9.69 mil tons, the second largest monthly total ever. This keeps them on pace to make USDA’s projection at 97 mil.

HRW harvest has rolled into south central and southwest Kansas.

Chart of the Day

Today’s charts show both old and new-crop USDA carryout changes for both corn and soybeans, for the June S&D Reports, since 1995. June had historically been a big month for new-crop corn carryout declines, with four losses of 200 mbu or more in the span from 1995-2011, but only one large cut since (-145 mbu in 2016). Overall ending stocks cuts were much less common in soybeans, though the change still tended to the downside, with only two new crop bean stocks gains in June since 2006 (including LY).